A Prediction Model for Spot LNG Prices Based on Machine Learning Algorithms to Reduce Fluctuation Risks in Purchasing Prices

The ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict has exacerbated the global crisis of natural gas supply, particularly in Europe. During the winter season, major importers of liquefied natural gas (LNG), such as South Korea and Japan, were directly affected by fluctuating spot LNG prices. This study aimed to use machine learning (ML) to predict the Japan Korea Marker (JKM), a spot LNG price index, to reduce price fluctuation risks for LNG importers such as the Korean Gas Corporation (KOGAS). Hence, price prediction models were developed based on long short-term memory (LSTM), artificial neural network (ANN), and support vector machine (SVM) algorithms, which were used for time series data prediction. Eighty-seven variables were collected for JKM prediction, of which eight were selected for modeling. Four scenarios (scenarios A, B, C, and D) were devised and tested to analyze the effect of each variable on the performance of the models. Among the eight variables, JKM, national balancing point (NBP), and Brent price indexes demonstrated the largest effects on the performance of the ML models. In contrast, the variable of LNG import volume in China had the least effect. The LSTM model showed a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.195, making it the best-performing algorithm. However, the LSTM model demonstrated a decreased in performance of at least 57% during the COVID-19 period, which raises concerns regarding the reliability of the test results obtained during that time. The study compared the ML models' prediction performances with those of the traditional statistical model, autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA), to verify their effectiveness. The comparison results showed that the LSTM model's performance deviated by an MAE of 15–22%, which can be attributed to the constraints of the small dataset size and conceptual structural differences between the ML and ARIMA models. However, if a sufficiently large dataset can be secured for training, the ML model is expected to perform better than the ARIMA. Additionally, separate tests were conducted to predict the trends of JKM fluctuations and comprehensively validate the practicality of the ML models. Based on the test results, LSTM model, identified as the optimal ML algorithm, achieved a performance of 53% during the regular period and 57% d during the abnormal period (i.e., COVID-19). Subject matter experts agreed that the performance of the ML models could be improved through additional studies, ultimately reducing the risk of price fluctuations when purchasing spot LNG. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Energies (19961073) is the property of MDPI and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

The effect of the emergency shift to virtual instruction on student team dynamics

In spite of the sudden onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, many instructors who used team-based pedagogies shifted them online rather than suspending them entirely, but with limited time and resources. To examine the difference in team dynamics and outcomes for courses in Spring 2019 and Spring 2020 of over 1500 first-year engineering students per semester, Wilcoxon signed-rank tests and random forests method were used. Results show that students reported less improvement in team-member effectiveness, lower psychological safety, and less satisfaction in the semester with the emergency transition. However, students also reported lower conflict. The most important factor predicting project grades shifted from 'Interacting with teammates' to 'Having relevant knowledge, skills, and abilities' amid the emergency shift, accompanied by a reduction in team interdependence. In spite of the collection of data during an emergency transition, the foundation of face-to-face interaction before moving to virtual cooperation represents a useful contribution to research that has focused exclusively on virtual learning circumstances.

Sellers' inflation, profits and conflict: why can large firms hike prices in an emergency?

The dominant view of inflation holds that it is macroeconomic in origin and must always be tackled with macroeconomic tightening. In contrast, we argue that the US COVID-19 inflation is predominantly a sellers' inflation that derives from microeconomic origins, namely the ability of firms with market power to hike prices. Such firms are price makers, but they only engage in price hikes if they expect their competitors to do the same. This requires an implicit agreement which can be coordinated by sector-wide cost shocks and supply bot-tlenecks. We review the long-standing literature on price-setting in concentrated markets and survey earnings calls and compile firm-level data to derive a three-stage heuristic of the inflationary process: (1) Rising prices in systemically significant upstream sectors due to commodity market dynamics or bottlenecks create windfall profits and provide an impulse for further price hikes. (2) To protect profit margins from rising costs, downstream sectors propagate, or in cases of temporary monopolies due to bottlenecks, amplify price pressures. (3) Labor responds by trying to fend off real wage declines in the conflict stage. We argue that such sellers' inflation generates a general price rise which may be transitory, but can also lead to self-sustaining inflationary spirals under certain conditions. Policy should aim to contain price hikes at the impulse stage to prevent inflation from the onset.

Does workplace ostracism negatively affect family life during a pandemic?

PurposeThe study aims to investigate the impact of workplace ostracism (WO) and fear of the COVID-19 pandemic on the family life of restaurant employees. This research is based on the conservation of resources (COR) theory and work-family interface model to understand the theoretical underpinnings of mistreatment in the food sector during the COVID-19 pandemic.Design/methodology/approachThe study utilized a survey with a structured questionnaire to collect time-lagged data from 238 restaurant employees in the central region of Punjab province in Pakistan. The collected data were analyzed using the SPSS tool with modern-day techniques like bootstrapping, process macro and SmartPLS.FindingsThe study reveals that perceived stress levels of the employees increase due to ostracism, leading to work-family conflict. Furthermore, the study found that employees who fear COVID-19 are less stressed by ostracism.Originality/valueThe study's significant contribution lies in demonstrating that the impact of ostracism in the workplace is quite different from what was expected. The results have shown that ostracism can reduce the perceived stress levels of employees, leading to a decrease in work-family conflict, especially in the presence of fear of COVID-19.

Key supply chain strategies for post-COVID-19 recovery: evidence from an Indian smart furniture industry

PurposeSmart furniture is an essential part of research that has been designed to best complement easy and safe human interaction. The purpose of smart furniture is to save the space of the house and make the products unique, awesome and safe, functional, strong and also make it works better so the people can live better with it. This research aims to explore the key supply chain strategies implemented by the Indian smart furniture industry to reduce the impact of a post-COVID-19 pandemic.Design/methodology/approachThis work utilized a case study and conducted semi-structured interviews with the top leadership of the smart furniture manufacturing industry to explore key supply chain strategies to reduce the influence of the post-COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, key supply chain strategies have been analyzed using a multi-criteria decision-making technique known as grey relational analysis (GRA) to determine their ranking significance in the smart furniture industry.FindingsThe results of this study discovered that "Inventory-Categorization” is essential in ensuring business continuity during the COVID-19 pandemic and helps reduce the amount of stock they have on hand. It enhanced the opportunity for employees to properly focus on their work and an opportunity for better work-life balance. The results of the study can also help supply chain stakeholders in their establishment of critical strategies.Research limitations/implicationsThe implications of this research work help the Indian furniture industry to make supply chain investment decisions that benefit the organization to sustain itself.Originality/valueThis is the first study to explore key supply chain strategies for the post-COVID-19 era. This work will assist managers and practitioners in helping the organization decide which supply chain strategies are more critical to the betterment of the organization.

Current socio-economic problems that influence the state of health

The present time brings a lot of controversy and issues on economic, social and political ground. Time did not pass leaving opportunity for taking a breath from the Covid-19 pandemic, because the Ukrainian-Russian war started. This conflict unbalanced the commercial frame of Europe and prices started to go up, inducing reasons for insecurity fear for the wellbeing of tomorrow. Many people started to be anxious, and their symptoms included tachycardia, dyspnea, insomnia, headaches etc. All these symptoms are exacerbated by interfering with news from the media regarding the abovementioned socio-economic problems. Usually women are tented to be more influenceable and more alert, presenting themselves for evaluation in a medical cabinet.

COVID-19 Pandemic, Climate Change, and Conflicts on Agriculture: A Trio of Challenges to Global Food Security

Global food security is a worldwide concern. Food insecurity is a significant threat to poverty and hunger eradication goals. Agriculture is one of the focal points in the global policy agenda. Increases in agricultural productivity through the incorporation of technological advances or expansion of cultivable land areas have been pushed forward. However, production growth has slowed in many parts of the world due to various endemic challenges, such as decreased investment in agricultural research, lack of infrastructure in rural areas, and increasing water scarcity. Climate change adversities in agriculture and food security are increasing. Recently, the COVID-19 pandemic has severely affected global food supply chains. Economic and social instability from the pandemic contribute to long-term disturbances. Additionally, conflicts such as war directly affect agriculture by environmental degradation, violence, and breaches of national and international trade agreements. A combination of food security and climate change challenges along with increased conflicts among nations and post-COVID-19 social and economic issues bring bigger and more serious threats to agriculture. This necessitates the strategic design of policies through multifaceted fields regarding food systems. In this comprehensive review, we explore how these three challenging factors, COVID-19, climate change, and conflicts, are interrelated, and how they affect food security. We discuss the impact of these issues on the agricultural sector, plus possible ways of preventing or overcoming such adverse effects.

A Slow-Rolling Disaster: Assessing the Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Militant Violence

Despite alarming predications about the Covid 19 pandemic that appear to fit the literature on the impact of natural disasters on civil wars, there are reasons to be suspicious that a rise in militant violence would likely occur quickly or uniformly. Although the COVID-19 pandemic is most definitely a disaster that caught the world by surprise, this "slow-rolling” shock differs in important ways from the more commonly studied acute onset natural disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis that often increase violent competition among groups for scarce resources. Instead, the effects of slow-rolling disasters unfold in phases that, at least in the short run, are likely to encourage a period of relative decline in violence, as actors try and assess the effects of COVID-19 on their organization and their opponents. Both statistical and qualitative evidence from the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic supports the initial phases of our theory. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Journal of Conflict Resolution is the property of Sage Publications Inc. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Food and Nutrition Insecurity in Africa: The Primary Drivers and Sustainable Strategies to Improve the Current Status

Africa ranks second in the number of undernourished people globally and has the highest prevalence of food insecurity, twice the world's average. The continent could not meet the past Millennium Development Goals and targets for 2015, and the current projection shows that Africa is not on track to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 2 of Zero Hunger by 2030. Prospects for achieving these goals are dismal because of inherent primary drivers of food insecurity in each African region. This chapter identifies the primary drivers of food and nutrition insecurity in Africa and suggests strategies to attenuate its effect. Climate shocks (drought and flood) and insecurity are the primary agents driving food insecurity in Western, Central, and Southern Africa. Migratory pests (desert locusts) are a big challenge in Eastern and Southern Africa that have destroyed thousands of farmlands, while dependence on food subsidies, climate change, and political instability are the primary drivers of food insecurity in North Africa. In summary, the prevalence of food insecurity in Africa differs owing to the influence of food insecurity drivers in each region. Consequently, the COVID-19 widespread is expected to exacerbate Africa's current food insecurity. Sustainable strategies such as investing in the agricultural system through sustainable policies;reducing food prices;preventing localized desert locust outbreaks from attaining plague proportions and counterinsurgency;managing climate;and investing in food assistance in severe, catastrophic food insecurity that best fits each region would play a key role in mitigating food and nutrition insecurity in Africa. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023.

Precious Metals Comovements in Turbulent Times: COVID-19 and the Ukrainian Conflict

We examined the evolution of cross-market linkages between four major precious metals and US stock returns, before (Phase I) and after (Phase II) the COVID-19 outbreak. Phase II was also extended to encompass the Ukrainian conflict, which prolonged the period of uncertainty in financial markets. Due to the increase in volatility observed in Phase II, we used a heteroskedasticity-adjusted correlation coefficient to examine the evolution of correlation changes since the COVID-19 outbreak. We also propose a relevant dissimilarity measure in multidimensional scaling analysis that can be used for depicting associations between financial returns in turbulent times. Our results suggest that (i) the correlation levels of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium returns with US stock returns have not changed substantially since the COVID-19 outbreak, and (ii) all precious metal returns exhibit movements that are less synchronized with US stock returns, with palladium and gold being the least synchronized. © 2023 by the author.

Salmonellosis in the COVID-19 Pandemic Era

Relevance. In 2020, there was a unique situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the anti-epidemic measures introduced in this regard. To date, the question of how these methods affect the spread of other infectious diseases, including salmonellosis, has not been studied. Target. To assess the impact of anti-epidemic measures during the COVID-19 pandemic on the epidemic process of salmonella infection in St. Petersburg. Materials and methods. Reporting form No. 2 of Rospotrebnadzor «Information on infectious and parasitic diseases» for 2018–2020 and data from the State report «On the state of sanitary and epidemiological well-being of the population in St. Petersburg in 2019», «On the state of sanitary and epidemiological well-being of the population in St. Petersburg in 2020». Data processing was carried out using Microsoft Excel (Microsoft®, USA), Statistica for Windows (StatSoft®, USA) with the determination of the level of significance (p), the calculation of confidence intervals (95% CI) was carried out in the EpiTools application. Results. The incidence of salmonellosis in 2020 was significantly lower than in the previous 2 years 28.86 (95% CI 27.45–30.34) per 100 ths population, and in 2019 and 2018 – 49.8 (95% CI 47.9–51.7) and 39.21 (95% CI 37.6– 40.9) per 100 ths of the population respectively. When analyzing the incidence of salmonellosis in 1995 to 2020, it was revealed that in 2020 the incidence rate was the lowest over the past 25 years and below the multi-year average (37 per 100 ths population) in St. Petersburg by 22%. A decrease in the incidence of salmonellosis was observed in 2020 and in the Russian Federation as a whole compared to 2019, the indicator increased 1.6 times and amounted to 14.71 per 100 ths rubles. population (multi-year average – 29.1). In 2020, there was a change in the intra-annual incidence of salmonellosis. While the peak incidence of salmonellosis persisted in the autumn period (September–October), in 2020 there was no characteristic rise in the spring period, as was observed in 2018 and 2019, which may be due to the spring lockdown (p = 0.03). The decrease in the incidence of salmonellosis was due to a significant decrease in the incidence among adults, while this was not observed in other age groups. In 2018–2020, diseases in the population were caused by 61 serotypes of Salmonella: in 2018 – 33, in 2019 – 32, and in 2020 – 39 serotypes. During the pandemic, the decrease in the incidence of salmonellosis was due to the decrease in the incidence caused by S. Enteritis, which in 2020 amounted to 19.91 (95% CI 18.73-21.14) per 100 thousand population, while in 2019 – 39, 01 (95% CI 37.4–40.7) and in 2018 – 31.24 (95% CI 29.8–32.8) per 100 ths population. At the same time, the decrease in the incidence rate was a decrease in the incidence rate among adults, while in other age groups no changes in the incidence rate were observed. The incidence due to other salmonella serotypes did not change. There were no significant differences in the incidence of salmonellosis by sex and age. Conclusion. The measures introduced during the pandemic in 2020 led to a decrease in the incidence of salmonellosis in St. Petersburg by reducing the incidence of salmonellosis caused by S. Enteritidis among adults. © Lubimova AV, et al.

The Current Crisis Intensifies the Economic Contrasts in the World's Major Cities. Driven by the Pandemic, and Other Negative Aspects

The general objective of this research was to determine the probable mechanisms to counteract the impoverishing effects and whose confluence is driving the current crisis, through scientific and technological advances to move towards a more equitable economy, with less income inequality between social groups and less social mobility to move towards a more equitable economy, with lower income inequality between social groups and less social mobility. The methodology of Kitchenham (2004) was used to carry out a Systematic Literature Review (RSL). The PICOC framework was used to identify the central elements of the research question (Booth, Sutton, & Papaioannou, 2016) Some international organizations report that the crisis caused by the COVID 19 pandemic will continue until 2030. Well, 2020 was recharged in the poorest and most vulnerable. The World Bank calls "chronic poor" -rural population dedicated to agriculture and livestock -with the pandemic new poor were evidenced in the cities, among people with higher educational degrees, dedicated to services, construction and manufacturing, and especially in the younger population. The World Bank projects that in the long run the crisis is likely to increase inequality within countries, the economy had its biggest drop in 90 years and millions of people lost their jobs. And he emphasizes that the pandemic, armed conflicts and climate change are the 3 factors whose confluence is driving the current crisis and its impact will extend into the future. The World Bank also reports that even if we are optimistic, the impoverishing effects of the pandemic will be colossal. And that the tech billionaires bulged their wealth in the midst of the crisis.

Clinical and Epidemiological Characteristics of COVID-19 in Persons Living with HIV Complicated by Tuberculosis

Relevance. At present, three infections – HIV infection, tuberculosis, and COVID-19-are spreading simultaneously in the world. Of great practical importance is the assessment of clinical and epidemiological features of COVID-19 in HIV-infected patients with tuberculosis, COVID-19. Aim. To study the risk of COVID-19 disease and identify clinical and epidemiological features in and population of patients with HIV infection complicated by tuberculosis in comparison with patients with HIV infection and the population without these diseases. Materials and methods. Since 13.03.2020 by 31.12.2021 in the Kemerovo Region-Kuzbass, a continuous prospective analytical epidemiological study of the case-control type was performed. Of those with COVID-19, two observation groups were formed: group I (HIV +), group II (HIV/TB) and comparison group III (persons without either HIV or tuberculosis). All patients underwent: determination of SARS-CoV-2 RNA, standard examination methods in accordance with the temporary methodological recommendations «Prevention, diagnosis and treatment of a new coronavirus infection (COVID-19)», relevant at the time of treatment. Results. The incidence of COVID-19 among patients with HIV infection complicated by tuberculosis exceeded the incidence of COVID-19 among HIV-infected by 14%. There were no gender differences between patients I (HIV +) and II (HIV/TB) groups. In the comparison group, the incidence of COVID-19 was 1.26 times higher in women compared to men. COVID-19 disease in patients with co-infection (HIV/TB) was predominantly mild. Viral pneumonia developed 1.86 times less often, oxygenotherapy was required only in 18.75% of cases, which is 2.5 times lower than in group I (HIV +) and 2.47 times less than in the comparison group (III). In labeled pairs, clinical symptoms of COVID-19 in all groups occurred with the same frequency. Metabolic disorders were evident in all groups. Co-infected patients (HIV/TB) had higher levels of D-dimer, ESR, total bilirubin. Conclusion. Active tuberculosis in HIV-infected people is a factor that increases the risk of COVID-19 disease without affecting the severity of the infectious process. © 2023, Numikom. All rights reserved.

Technique for Investigating Attacks on a Company's Reputation on a Social Media Platform

In this paper, we present the technique for investigating attacks on a company's reputation on a social media platform as a part of an arsenal of digital forensics investigators. The technique consists of several methods, including (1) identifying the attack based on sentiment analysis, (2) identifying the actors of the attack, (3) determining the attack's impact, and (4) determining core actors to identify the strategy of the attacker, including (4a) usage of bots, (4b) attempts to conflict initiation, (4c) competitor promotion, (4d) uncoordinated user attack. In the paper we also present the evaluation of this technique using the real investigation of use-case, where we investigate the attack on a retail company X, that occurs after the company changed its policy dedicated to COVID-19 QR codes for their visitors. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

THE RED FLAG OF EMERGENCY USE AUTHORIZATION (EUA)

The Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) policy, a representative biodefense policy, was legislated in the United States in 2001 based on lessons learned from Amerithrax, whereas Korea's EUA policy was based on lessons learned from the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in 2015. Due to these divergent origins, the U.S. EUA's homeland security objectives were specialized to deal with highly pathogenic biological agents that could be exploited for bioterrorism, whereas the Korean EUA pursues disease containment purposes to strengthen mass-testing practices. During the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. EUA revealed limitations in its integration with public health surveillance, laboratory partnerships, and insurance systems, which hampered the rapid expansion of testing capacities. Thereafter, once the limitations of the EUA were circumvented, the testing capacity of the United States began to catch up with that of South Korea, and later skyrocketed after solving these issues. (English) [ FROM AUTHOR] La política de autorización de uso de emergencia (EUA), una política representativa de biodefensa, se legisló en los Estados Unidos en 2001 en base a las lecciones aprendidas de Amerithrax, mientras que la política de EUA de Corea se basó en las lecciones aprendidas del brote del síndrome respiratorio de Oriente Medio (MERS) en 2015 Debido a estos orígenes divergentes, los objetivos de seguridad nacional de la EUA EUA se especializaron para tratar con agentes biológicos altamente patógenos que podrían explotarse para el bioterrorismo, mientras que la EUA coreana persigue propósitos de contención de enfermedades para fortalecer las prácticas de pruebas masivas. Durante la fase inicial de la pandemia de COVID-19, la EUA EUA reveló limitaciones en su integración con la vigilancia de la salud pública, las asociaciones de laboratorios y los sistemas de seguros, lo que obstaculizó la rápida expansión de las capacidades de prueba. A partir de entonces, una vez que se eludieron las limitaciones de la EUA, la capacidad de prueba de los Estados Unidos comenzó a alcanzar a la de Corea del Sur y luego se disparó después de resolver estos problemas. (Spanish) [ FROM AUTHOR] 美国在2001年根据炭疽攻击事件(Amerithrax)的经验教训制定了一项具有代表性的生物防卫政策，即紧急使用授权(EUA)政策，而韩国的EUA政策则基于2015年爆发的中东呼吸综合征(MERS)的经验教训。鉴于这些不同的起源，美国EUA的国土安全目标专门应对可能被用于生物恐怖主义的高致病性生物制剂，而韩国EUA则追求疾病遏制目的，以加强大规模检测实践。在2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行的早期阶段，美国EUA在与公共卫生监测、实验室合作伙伴关系和保险系统的整合方面存在局限性，这阻碍了检测能力的快速扩展。此后，当绕过EUA的限制后，美国的检测能力开始赶上韩国，并在解决这些问题后，检测能力直线上升。 (Chinese) [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of World Affairs is the property of Sage Publications Inc. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Virtual team performance: E-leadership roles in the era of COVID-19

Purpose: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) situation has led to the emergence of virtual teams in all organizations, and the role of leadership has become more pertinent. The current research focuses on understanding the factors for better team performance in virtual teams. Based on the contingency perspective, the behavioral complexity in leadership (BCL) theory is the most appropriate as BCL requires the leader to demonstrate multiple contrasting leadership behaviors according to the situation. Both internal as well external roles were explored, which could facilitate better communication quality and role clarity to increase interpersonal trust and leadership effectiveness in the current crisis. Design/methodology/approach: Data were collected from employees who have worked in virtual teams during the crisis and who have experience of working in a virtual team environment. A total of 200 questionnaires were distributed, and 175 were received. A path model was built applying partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). Findings: Communication quality has come as a partial mediator for the relationship between internal and external leadership roles and trust. Role clarity fully mediated the relationship between external leadership roles and conflict. Internal and external leadership roles showed a significant effect on leadership effectiveness, which were further related to team performance in virtual teams. Additionally, synchronous technology was used more by virtual teams. Research limitations/implications: The study did not examine cultural differences or cultural adaptation in virtual teams. Instead of the BCL theory, future research may apply attribute-based or relational-based theory to examine leadership roles in virtual team performance. Originality/value: Using the BCL theory, the current study contributes to an understanding of virtual team performance and the internal as well as external role of leaders. This is relevant in an environment of extreme ambiguity such as COVID-19. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved)

Measuring Network Polarization and Political Sectarianism During the 2020 Pandemic

Online social networks are at the limelight of the public debate, where antagonistic groups compete to impose conflicting narratives and polarize the discussions. This article proposes an approach for measuring network polarization and political sectarianism in Twitter based on user interaction networks. Centrality metrics identify a small group of influential users (polarizers and unpolarizers) who influence a larger group of users (polarizees and unpolarizees) according to their ideological stance (left, right, and undefined). This network polarization is computed by the Bayesian probability using typical actions such as following, tweeting, retweeting, and replying. The measurement of political sectarianism also uses Bayesian probability and words extracted from the tweets to quantify the intensity of othering, aversion, and moralization in the debate. We collected Twitter data from 33 conflicted political events in Brazil during 2020, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on our methodology and polarization score, our results reveal that the approach based on user interaction networks leads to an increasing understanding of polarized conflicts in Twitter. Also, a small number of polarizers is enough to represent the polarization and sectarianism of Twitter events. © 2014 IEEE.

COVID-19 and Family Distancing Efforts: Contextual Demographic and Family Conflict Correlates

Since the COVID-19 outbreak, family members have spent more time together at home. This study introduces the concept of "family distancing"—the efforts to prevent the spread of the coronavirus to family members. We explore which demographic characteristics are associated with family distancing efforts and how the family distancing efforts are associated with family conflicts. Survey data were collected from adults (N = 324, M = 37 years;SD = 10.5 years;65.1% female) in Korea. We found that gender, education, marital status, physical health status, and number of family members who live together were significantly associated with family distancing efforts. In addition, lower compliance with the request for family distancing was significantly associated with a higher degree of negative emotions (i.e., anger), which in turn was associated with more family conflict. The findings highlight the potential importance of family distancing efforts to maintain health but also their potential to increase family conflict.

Academics like us ... : Creating a process for sustainability as teacher-scholars

Academics like us ...: Creating a process for sustainability as teacher-scholars In this essay, we call for teacher-scholars to honor the coconstructed nature of academic culture and to create systems that sustain us at individual and community levels. The COVID-19 pandemic created space for us to deeply question previously held ways of understanding and navigating the entwinement of our academic and personal lives. [Extracted from the article] Copyright of Communication Education is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Eagle effects on seabird productivity: Effects of a natural experiment

Altered human presence, which resulted from COVID-19 lockdowns, led to instant and wide-ranging effects on wildlife across the globe. While humans have gradually reappeared in nature after the lockdowns, it has remained unclear how persistent these lockdown effects have been on ecosystems. We have earlier reported an unexpected chain of events linked to the closing of the tourist traffic to an iconic seabird island in the Baltic Sea. When tourists disappeared, the number of white-tailed eagles rose dramatically, which had strong negative effects on breeding common murres. Using data from the first post-lockdown season (2021), when human presence increased, we document a sudden return to pre-lockdown conditions with fewer eagles, lowered disturbance of murres and recovered murre productivity. However, eagle disturbances of murres remained in an isolated part of the island, revealing that the interaction between humans, eagles and seabirds occur at a small geographical scale. This suggests that small-scale mediation of human behavior can be effective in mediating animal behavior and thereby allow for co-existence between seemingly conflicting conservation goals.